Key facts
- Brazil's 2025/26 grain harvest forecast has been raised to a record 358.6 million tonnes by CONAB.
- The increase is attributed to expanded planting areas and favorable weather conditions.
- Soybean output is projected to reach a record 180.3 million tonnes.
- Wheat production is expected to decrease by 20% to 6.3 million tonnes due to reduced acreage.
- Corn production is forecast at 140.5 million tonnes, a slight decline from the previous cycle.
Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) has raised its forecast for the country's 2025/26 grain harvest to a record 358.6 million tonnes, an increase of 600,000 tonnes from its previous estimate. This projected harvest represents an 1.8% increase compared to the prior crop year.
The upward revision is driven by an expansion in planted area, now estimated at 83.5 million hectares, coupled with favorable weather conditions expected to support strong average yields nationwide. Fabiano Vasconcellos, CONAB’s crop monitoring manager, stated that despite lower second-crop corn yields in this estimate, the outlook remains for the largest grain harvest ever recorded in CONAB’s historical series.
Soybeans, Brazil's primary agricultural crop, also saw a higher estimate, with production projected at 180.3 million tonnes, up from 180.1 million tonnes in the prior report. This figure, which is 5.1% higher than last season's output, would also set a new record, reflecting a larger area devoted to soybeans, advanced production technologies, and favorable weather.
Corn production is expected to total 140.5 million tonnes across all three annual harvests, a 0.5% decline from the previous cycle. Cotton lint production is estimated at around 4 million tonnes, down 2.5% from the 2024/25 season due to reduced planted area. Rice harvesting is nearly complete, with production estimated at 11.1 million tonnes, a 13.2% decrease from the previous season, attributed to a smaller planted area. Bean production is expected to be close to 3 million tonnes, a 0.5% decrease.
For wheat, the main winter crop, CONAB projects a 20% decline in national production, with output expected to reach 6.3 million tonnes. This forecast is influenced by reduced planting area in key producing regions and expectations of an El Niño weather pattern.