Key facts
- Australia's upcoming wheat harvest is predicted to be the smallest in three years.
- ABARES forecasts a harvest of 26.7 million metric tons.
- High fertilizer costs, linked to the war in Iran, are reducing potential yields.
- Dry weather conditions and a predicted El Nino are also impacting crop growth.
- The amount of land planted with wheat is expected to fall 12% from last season.
Australia is a significant global wheat exporter, and a reduction in its harvest can impact global supply and prices. This decrease comes at a time when global agricultural markets are already sensitive to geopolitical events, such as the war in Iran, which has driven up fertilizer costs, and weather patterns like El Nino, which can lead to crop losses in key producing regions. ABARES projects the Australian wheat crop at 26.7 million metric tons, a 26% decrease year-on-year, which is significantly lower than the USDA's estimate of 30.0 million metric tons.