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World Bank: Indonesia GDP to slow to 5% in 2026 amid fiscal pressures

Created at 11 Jun · 8:17 AM5 sources↑ Market-relevant4 events
IN SHORT

The World Bank forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.5% this year, citing the impact of the Iran war on energy prices and increased uncertainty. The bank also downgraded its growth forecast for developing and emerging market countries.

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Key Numbers

2.5%global economic growth forecast for this year
5%Indonesia GDP growth forecast for 2026
3.6%developing and emerging market countries growth forecast
2.2%U.S. economic growth forecast for this year
4.2%China economic growth forecast for this year
6.6%India economic growth forecast for this year
0.8%Eurozone economic growth forecast for this year
$94average Brent crude oil price forecast for this year (per barrel)

Who's Involved

World Bank
anti-poverty agency forecasting global economic growth
Iran
country whose war is impacting global energy prices and growth
United States
economy expected to grow 2.2% this year
China
second-largest economy with a growth forecast of 4.2%
India
fastest-growing major economy projected to expand 6.6%

↳ Why This Matters

The World Bank's reduced global growth forecast signals a challenging economic outlook, with potential impacts on emerging markets and increased inflation due to energy price shocks. The forecast highlights the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and global economic stability.

Key facts

  • The World Bank forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.5% this year.
  • The slowdown is attributed to the Iran war's impact on energy prices and increased uncertainty.
  • Developing and emerging market countries are expected to see growth cut by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6%.
  • The U.S. economy is projected to grow 2.2% this year, unchanged from previous forecasts.
  • China's economic growth is forecast at 4.2% for the year.
  • India is expected to grow 6.6% this year, while the Eurozone is projected to grow 0.8%.

The World Bank has significantly lowered its global economic growth forecast to 2.5% for the current year, citing the economic fallout from the Iran war, which has led to higher energy prices and increased uncertainty. This marks the weakest global performance since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The bank has downgraded growth forecasts for two-thirds of the world's countries. Developing and emerging market countries are expected to see their growth cut by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6%, with the disruption in energy supplies and price increases dampening confidence and economic activity.

Despite the global slowdown, the United States economy is projected to grow 2.2% this year, unchanged from its January forecast. The World Bank attributes this resilience to the U.S. being a major energy producer, benefiting from tax cuts, and booming investment in artificial intelligence.

China, the world's second-largest economy, is expected to grow 4.2% this year, a decrease from previous forecasts. India is anticipated to remain the world's fastest-growing major economy, with a projected expansion of 6.6%, though this is down from earlier projections. The Eurozone countries are collectively expected to achieve only 0.8% growth.

The conflict in the Middle East has also impacted energy markets, with Iran reportedly closing the Strait of Hormuz. The World Bank forecasts the price of Brent crude oil to average $94 a barrel this year, a substantial increase from previous estimates.

Frequently asked questions

The World Bank forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.5% this year.

The slowdown is attributed to the economic fallout from the Iran war, including higher energy prices and increased uncertainty.

These countries are expected to see their growth cut by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6%, with dampened confidence and weakened economic activity.

The U.S. economy is projected to grow 2.2% this year, unchanged from previous forecasts.

The World Bank expects Brent crude oil to average $94 a barrel this year.

What Happens Next

01The World Bank will continue to monitor global economic conditions and update forecasts.
02Governments may implement fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the economic slowdown.

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Cadence

How It Developed

The World Bank forecasts Indonesia's GDP growth to slow to 5% in 2026 due to fiscal pressures from spending and rising fuel subsidies.
The World Bank has lowered its global economic growth forecast to 2.5% for the current year due to the Iran war's impact on energy prices and uncertainty.
The World Bank warns the Iran war is causing inflation and slowing global growth to 2.5% in 2026, a decade of lost development for emerging economies.
The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% and warned of a potential 1.3% slowdown if war fallout spreads to financial markets.
The World Bank expects the world economy to grow 2.5% this year, its weakest performance since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The bank downgraded its forecast for growth in two-thirds of the world's countries.
The World Bank still expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.2% this year, unchanged from a January forecast.
China is expected to register economic growth of 4.2% this year, down from 5% in 2025.

Sources

T1
Citing fallout from Iran war, World Bank cuts forecast for global economic growthAP News
T1
World Bank Warns Iran War Is Slowing Global GrowthThe New York Times
T1
World Bank cuts global growth forecast to 2.5%; India seen growing 6.6% amid Iran warThe Economic Times
T1
World Bank says Indonesia's GDP to slow to 5% in 2026 as fiscal pressures riseReuters via PiQSuite
T1
World Bank cuts global growth outlook to 2.5%, warns of drop to 1.3% if war fallout spreads to marketsReuters via PiQSuite
T2
Iran war impacts global growth forecast, IMF warns of economic slowdown ...apnews.com
T2
Global growth is slowing to lowest level since pandemic, says World Banktheguardian.com

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