Pakistan projects 3.7% GDP growth for FY26, misses targets

Created at 11 Jun · 10:37 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant

IN SHORT

Pakistan's annual economic survey projects real GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal year 2026, missing earlier targets. The report highlights a current account deficit of $252 million and a trade deficit of $23.53 billion, while noting a strong fiscal performance with a 0.7% deficit and 3.2% primary surplus.

Key Numbers

3.7%projected real GDP growth FY26

6.7%projected average CPI inflation July-May

$252 millioncurrent account deficit July-April

$23.53 billiontrade deficit July-March

0.7%fiscal deficit July-March

3.2%projected primary surplus

83,285 billion rupeespublic debt end-March

14.4%stagnant investment share of national economy

14%savings share of national economy

2.89%provisional agriculture growth rate

3.51%provisional industry growth rate

4.09%provisional services growth rate

6.11%large scale manufacturing growth July-March

-10.63%electricity, gas, water supply contraction

$452.1 billioneconomy size FY26

$410.96 billioneconomy size FY25

$1,901per capita income FY26

$1,824per capita income FY25

Who's Involved

Muhammad Aurangzeb

Finance Minister of Pakistan

IMF

projected Pakistan's GDP growth at 3.6%

World Bank

projected Pakistan's GDP growth at 3%

Asian Development Bank

forecasted Pakistan's GDP growth at 3.5%

Pakistan projects 3.7% GDP growth for FY26, misses targets

↳ Why This Matters

The economic survey provides a snapshot of Pakistan's financial health and growth trajectory, offering insights into the government's fiscal management and sector-specific performance ahead of the annual budget. The missed targets and current economic indicators will inform investor sentiment and policy decisions.

Key facts

Pakistan's economic survey projects 3.7% real GDP growth for fiscal year 2026.
Average CPI inflation was projected at 6.7% for July-May.
The current account deficit was $252 million in July-April.
The trade deficit reached $23.53 billion from July to March.
The fiscal deficit was 0.7% of GDP in July-March, with a 3.2% primary surplus.
Public debt stood at 83,285 billion rupees by end-March.

Pakistan's annual economic survey projects real GDP growth at 3.7% for the fiscal year ending June 2026, according to a report released on Thursday. The government has missed targets for GDP growth, inflation, savings, and investment.

The survey indicated that average CPI inflation was seen at 6.7% in the July-May period, with price stability broadly preserved despite geopolitical impacts on energy prices. The current account deficit stood at $252 million in the July-April period, while the trade deficit from July to March was $23.53 billion.

The fiscal deficit was reported at 0.7% of GDP in the July-March period, which the survey described as the strongest fiscal performance in decades. A primary surplus was projected at 3.2% of GDP, and public debt was 83,285 billion rupees by the end of March.

Overall fiscal performance is considered encouraging, supported by expenditure control, revenue mobilization, provincial surpluses, and ongoing fiscal reforms. The government missed targets for increasing investment and savings, with investment remaining stagnant at 14.4% and savings plunging to 14% of the national economy.

Provisional growth rates for agriculture, industry, and services were 2.89%, 3.51%, and 4.09% respectively. Large-scale manufacturing grew 6.11% from July to March, with notable contributions from food, tobacco, and automobiles. However, the electricity, gas, and water supply industry contracted by 10.63%.

The size of the economy rose to $452.1 billion in FY26 from $410.96 billion in FY25, driven mainly by the services sector. Per capita income slightly increased to $1,901 in FY26 from $1,824 in FY25, though it remains the lowest in the region.

Frequently asked questions

Pakistan's economic survey projects real GDP growth at 3.7% for the fiscal year ending June 2026.

The survey reported a fiscal deficit of 0.7% of GDP and a primary surplus of 3.2% for the July-March period, with public debt at 83,285 billion rupees.

No, the government missed targets for increasing investment and savings, with investment stagnant at 14.4% and savings at 14%.

Provisional growth rates were 2.89% for agriculture, 3.51% for industry, and 4.09% for services.

What Happens Next

01The federal government will present the annual federal budget.

02International financial institutions' projections for Pakistan's GDP growth will be compared against actual performance.

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How It Developed

Pakistan's annual economic survey projected real GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal year 2026.

The survey indicated average CPI inflation of 6.7% for July-May, with price stability broadly preserved.

The current account deficit was $252 million in July-April, and the trade deficit was $23.53 billion from July to March.

The fiscal deficit was 0.7% of GDP in July-March, described as the strongest fiscal performance in decades.

A primary surplus of 3.2% of GDP was projected, with public debt at 83,285 billion rupees by end-March.

The government missed targets for investment and savings, with investment stagnant at 14.4% and savings at 14%.