Key facts
- Japan's death rate is currently higher than official projections.
- Life expectancy gains have stalled since the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The annual death toll has reached 1.4 million and is expected to continue rising until 2040.
- Increased aging and death tolls may lead to a rapid increase in health expenditures.
- Societal and economic system reforms are being considered to address these demographic shifts.
Japan's death rate is exceeding official projections, placing strain on its medical and end-of-life service sectors. This demographic trend is attributed to stalled gains in life expectancy since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The country, with approximately 30% of its population over 65, faces a projected rise in its annual death toll, which has reached 1.4 million and is expected to continue increasing until 2040. This demographic shift is anticipated to significantly increase health expenditures, as statistics indicate that half of lifetime health costs are incurred after the age of 70.
Experts suggest that Japan needs to prepare for a "post-aging society" by considering drastic changes to its economic and social systems. Potential impacts include shortages of funeral and cemetery spaces, increased demand for inheritance and property management services, and environmental concerns related to cremation. The healthcare system may transition from a fee-for-service model to a value-based approach, prioritizing the Quality-of-Death (QOD) and patient preferences for end-of-life care.
Reforms could involve enabling innovative approaches through regulatory changes and policies supporting new services and products. The focus on QOD highlights that extending life expectancy does not always equate to improved Quality-of-Life (QOL), prompting a re-evaluation of how healthcare services are delivered and measured.