Key facts
- China's economic growth is expected to slow to 4.6% in the second quarter.
- This represents a decrease from the 5% growth recorded in the first quarter.
- Weak domestic demand and a persistent property downturn are identified as major headwinds.
- Trade tensions with the United States are contributing to deflationary pressures.
- Economists anticipate that Beijing may need to introduce additional stimulus measures.
China's economic growth is expected to have slowed in the second quarter, with economists forecasting a rate of 4.6%, down from 5% in the January-March period. This slowdown is attributed to weak domestic demand, ongoing challenges in the property sector, and persistent trade tensions with the United States, which are exacerbating deflationary pressures.
A survey by Nikkei indicated the slowdown, while a Reuters poll of 40 economists projected 5.1% year-on-year growth for the second quarter, a cooling from the first quarter's 5.4%. This pace, however, remains broadly in line with Beijing's full-year target of around 5% and exceeds the 4.7% forecast from an April Reuters poll.
Markets are closely monitoring upcoming policy meetings, particularly the Politburo meeting in late July, for signs of further stimulus measures aimed at bolstering the economy in the latter half of the year. The fragile U.S.-China trade truce has helped the world's second-largest economy avoid a sharper downturn so far, but slowing exports and weak consumer demand continue to pose challenges.