Key facts
- China's export growth is expected to have slowed in July but remain robust.
- Exports are forecast to have expanded 22.2% year-on-year in July, down from 27% in June.
- Imports are forecast to have risen 27.9% in July, softening from a 36% jump.
- The expected trade surplus for July is $107 billion.
- Global demand for AI-related goods and pre-tariff shipments are boosting exports.
- Extreme weather may have impacted port throughput and shipping in July.
China's export growth is anticipated to have moderated in July following a significant surge in June, yet is still expected to remain robust. A Reuters poll of 35 economists forecasts a 22.2% year-on-year increase in exports in U.S. dollar terms for July, a slowdown from June's 27% expansion. Imports are projected to grow by 27.9%, softening from the previous month's 36% rise.
This sustained export strength is attributed to global demand for artificial intelligence-related products and a proactive approach by Chinese factories to ship goods ahead of anticipated U.S. tariff increases. The trade surplus for July is estimated at $107 billion, down from $125.62 billion in June.
However, potential headwinds include disruptions from extreme weather events like typhoons, which may have affected port operations and shipping. Official data indicated a contraction in China's factory and services activity in July as demand weakened. In response, China's Politburo has signaled increased fiscal spending and monetary policy adjustments to support the economy, though specific consumer-focused stimulus measures were not announced.