Key facts
- Waymo captured 15% of ride-hailing gross bookings in San Francisco and Los Angeles in June.
- Waymo's share in Phoenix was 16% in June, down from 19% in January.
- Experts believe Waymo's impact on human drivers may manifest as reduced utilization and fewer trips per hour.
- Hourly driver wages declined in cities with Waymo operations, while national median wages rose.
- Data limitations and the independent contractor status of drivers make measuring displacement difficult.
Alphabet's Waymo is increasingly capturing a significant portion of the ride-hailing market in its operational cities, with third-party data indicating it accounted for roughly 15% to 19% of gross bookings in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix during June.
While this share is substantial enough to potentially impact human drivers, experts suggest the fallout may not be immediately visible as mass layoffs. Professor Gad Allon of Wharton noted that the flexibility of the gig economy means effects would likely first appear as decreased driver utilization, longer wait times, fewer trips per hour, and increased unpaid repositioning.
Data from market research firm Yipit, based on consumer email receipts, showed Waymo's share in these three markets remained in the mid-teens through June. Uber's CFO shared this data, acknowledging it as an external reference point for Uber's competitive standing.
Hints of change in the rideshare workforce are emerging. Uber's CEO mentioned recruiting fewer drivers in cities with autonomous vehicles, while Lyft's CEO expressed belief in a hybrid future where AVs expand the market. However, hourly driver wages in areas with Waymo operations saw a decline last year, a trend researchers could not definitively attribute to robotaxis.
Measuring the precise impact of robotaxis on driver displacement is challenging, according to Katie Wells of the AI Now Institute. The independent contractor status of drivers and a lack of specific data on utilization and wait times complicate efforts to quantify job losses. Wells also noted that the anticipation of automation has previously demotivated drivers from seeking better working conditions, as they perceive their roles as temporary.