J.P. Morgan upgraded Tesla to 'neutral' from 'underweight', believing its valuation is increasingly driven by autonomous driving and robotics rather than near-term earnings. The brokerage hiked its price target to $475 from $145, projecting significant revenue growth from services and new ventures by 2030.
J.P. Morgan upgraded Tesla to 'neutral' from 'underweight' on Friday, shifting its view to focus on the company's long-term growth potential in autonomous driving, robotics, and AI rather than near-term earnings. The brokerage significantly raised its price target for Tesla shares to $475 from $145. Analysts believe Tesla's valuation is increasingly influenced by its expansion into robotaxis, humanoid robots, AI chips, and software services, which could transform its earnings profile over the next decade. J.P. Morgan highlighted Tesla's strong vertical integration across hardware and software as a key advantage. The firm projects Tesla's revenue to more than double from approximately $95 billion in 2025 to around $203 billion by 2030, with nearly half of this growth expected from services and newer businesses. Earnings per share are estimated to potentially inflect beyond 2028, jumping nearly threefold to about $7.50 by 2030 from an estimated $1.95 in 2026. J.P. Morgan values Tesla across five interconnected markets—automotive, energy storage, robotaxis, humanoid robots, and infrastructure licensing—with a combined potential addressable market of about $3.9 trillion by 2035. However, the brokerage cautioned that significant execution risks remain, particularly concerning regulatory approvals, safety validation, and scaling new technologies. Tesla shares were down marginally in premarket trading.
The upgrade signals a shift in investor focus towards Tesla's future growth avenues beyond its core electric vehicle business, potentially re-rating the stock if its ambitious robotics and AI ventures materialize as projected.