Key facts
- A SpaceX rocket's upper stage will impact the moon on Wednesday.
- The impact is predicted to occur at 5,400 mph near Einstein Crater.
- Scientists plan to observe the event to study debris hazards for future astronauts.
- The rocket segment is approximately 40 feet long and weighs 10,000 pounds.
- This will be the second known accidental crash of a rocket into the moon.
A discarded SpaceX rocket's upper stage is on an unavoidable collision course with the moon, set to impact on Wednesday at approximately 5,400 mph. The crash, predicted to occur near Einstein Crater, will carve out a crater and eject a plume of dust and rubble that scientists are eager to observe. This event highlights growing concerns about the increasing amount of space debris in orbit.
Space experts noted that the crash could have been avoided if the rocket stage had been nudged into a solar orbit. This marks the second known accidental impact of a rocket on the moon, following a Chinese rocket segment in 2022. The upcoming impact, however, will occur on the moon's near side, offering opportunities for observation. Scientists, including Benjamin Fernando from Los Alamos National Laboratory, are encouraging both professional and amateur astronomers to observe the event to better understand the hazards posed by debris impacts for future lunar missions and astronauts.
NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea's Danuri lunar orbiter are expected to capture before-and-after images of the impact site. The abandoned rocket segment, measuring about 40 feet long and weighing around 10,000 pounds, was part of a mission that launched two private lunar landers on January 15, 2025. While one lander, Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost, successfully touched down, Japan-based ispace's lander was lost. The observation of this controlled human-made impact provides valuable data, contrasting with the unpredictable nature of meteoroid strikes. Historically, NASA also impacted the moon with rocket sections during the Apollo era for seismic measurements and intentionally crashed its LCROSS spacecraft in 2009 to search for ice.
With increased activity and competition to land astronauts on the moon, including efforts by the United States and China, and companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin vying for NASA's Artemis IV lander contract, improving debris monitoring and traffic control is becoming crucial. Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell commented that while this specific impact is not a problem, future lunar bases would face significant issues from similar debris in chaotic orbits.