AI's US employment and wage impact muted so far, ECB study finds

A European Central Bank study released on Monday suggests that the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence usage has had a muted impact on aggregate employment and wages in the United States thus far. While concerns persist that AI could lead to widespread job displacement and increased inequality, current data indicate a different trend.

The study argues that the U.S. economy began adjusting to AI several years ago, with jobs most vulnerable to AI substitution being reallocated to other sectors. Between 2019 and 2025, jobs with a high risk of AI substitution are projected to have grown approximately 15 percentage points less than those with a low risk. Specifically, employment in high-risk roles, such as economists and graphic designers, declined by more than 4% during this period.

In contrast, employment in jobs with a low risk of AI substitution, like electricians and high school teachers, saw an increase of 13%. This shift has led to an increase in the share of low-risk jobs in total U.S. employment from 23% to 25%, while the share of high-risk jobs has decreased from 35% to 33%.

Furthermore, the research found no significant impact on wage growth attributable to AI substitution risk since 2019. However, the ECB noted that as the labor market continues to adapt and AI tools become more generative, income effects could become more pronounced over time.