Key facts
- Several major AI chatbots have been queried for predictions on the 2026 World Cup winner.
- Western chatbots like ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini predominantly predict Spain as the winner.
- Chinese chatbots DeepSeek and Qwen favor Argentina, while Mistral's chatbot predicts France.
- Researchers are scientifically evaluating AI models' predictive accuracy for dynamic events.
- AI is also being utilized in various support roles within the football industry.
As the 2026 World Cup approaches, generative AI chatbots are being consulted for predictions, drawing parallels to the famed octopus Paul from the 2010 tournament. Western AI models, including OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude, predominantly forecast Spain as the winner, with France as a strong second choice. This aligns with findings from Bank of America analysts and Tom's Guide, who also saw Spain favored by their respective AI tools. However, Chinese AI competitors, such as DeepSeek and Qwen, have a different outlook, tipping Argentina to clinch the title. Meanwhile, Mistral's chatbot, Le Chat, predicts a victory for France.
Researchers are now scientifically evaluating the predictive capabilities of these large language models for dynamic, real-world events like football matches. A team at Germany's Ludwig Maximilian University (LMU) is publishing game-by-game prediction accuracy on a public website, LLM SoccerArena. These studies assess AI's ability to handle uncertainty and integrate dynamic information, including injuries, squad changes, and betting market data. Beyond prediction, AI is also finding applications in supporting football operations, assisting coaches, medical staff, and referees, according to researchers from Australia's University of the Sunshine Coast.