Key facts
- Galaxy Research cut the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 10%.
- Senate calendar constraints are a primary reason for the reduced odds.
- Unresolved ethics provisions are hindering the CLARITY Act's progress.
- Industry lobbying is contributing to the legislative delay.
- The SEC and CFTC are accelerating independent regulatory actions.
- The CLARITY Act aims to provide regulatory clarity for digital assets.
Galaxy Research has significantly lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act being enacted into law by 2026, now estimating the chances at just 10%. This downward revision is attributed to a confluence of factors, primarily Senate calendar constraints that limit legislative time. Furthermore, unresolved ethics provisions within the proposed legislation continue to pose a substantial obstacle. The influence of industry lobbying is also cited as a contributing element to the stalled progress.