HomeEverythingEducation
Equities & FundsCrypto & Digital AssetsAI & TechnologyBusiness & CorporateUS Politics & PolicyGeopolitics & Global RiskMacro, Rates & FXCommodities & EnergyEuropean Politics & MarketsAsia-PacificReal Estate & Property
Story archiveAll categories
← All Stories

Wall Street Banks Restrict Prediction Market Trading Amid Insider Fears

Created at 10 Jul · 11:55 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, are tightening rules on employee trading in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi due to concerns about insider trading. This follows a case where a Google employee allegedly profited from nonpublic information.

✉Newsletter

PiQ Daily

Pick your topics. Get only what matters, on your cadence.

Key Numbers

$1.2 millionprofit allegedly made by Google employee on Polymarket
$713 millionPolymarket's record daily taker volume on June 20
$9.4 billionKalshi's record monthly trading volume in June

Who's Involved

Goldman Sachs
Wall Street bank restricting employee prediction market trading
Morgan Stanley
Wall Street bank with existing policies on employee prediction market trading
Bank of America
Wall Street bank issuing new prohibitive measures for employees
Polymarket
Prediction market platform seeking US regulatory approval for margin trading
Kalshi
Prediction market platform that saw record trading volume in June
Michele Spagnuolo
Google software engineer accused of profiting from nonpublic information on Polymarket
US Justice Department
Investigating alleged insider trading on prediction markets
Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
Regulator investigating prediction markets and seeking approval for margin trading
Bryan Steil
US Representative proposing legislation to restrict public officials' prediction market trading

↳ Why This Matters

The tightening of rules by major financial institutions on prediction market trading signals a growing concern over the potential for illicit use of nonpublic information, impacting market integrity and regulatory oversight of these platforms.

Key facts

  • Wall Street banks are restricting employee trading on prediction market platforms.
  • Goldman Sachs has banned employees from trading on event contracts specific to the bank.
  • Morgan Stanley has policies regarding employee prediction market trading.
  • Bank of America is implementing new prohibitive measures for employees.
  • Concerns over insider trading on prediction markets have intensified.
  • A Google employee allegedly profited $1.2 million on Polymarket using nonpublic information.

Wall Street banks are implementing stricter rules for their employees regarding trading on prediction market platforms, driven by escalating concerns about insider trading. Goldman Sachs has reportedly prohibited its staff from trading on event contracts related to the bank, financial markets, macroeconomic events, elections, and geopolitics. Morgan Stanley confirmed it has existing policies in place, while Bank of America is in the process of issuing new prohibitive measures. These actions follow a high-profile case where a Google employee allegedly made $1.2 million on Polymarket by leveraging nonpublic information obtained at work. The US Justice Department and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have been scrutinizing prediction markets, with lawmakers also proposing legislation to prevent public officials from trading on political outcomes. Meanwhile, Polymarket is actively seeking US regulatory approval to offer margin trading, having filed an application to become a futures commission merchant. The platform, along with rival Kalshi, has seen significant trading volume increases, partly attributed to major events like the FIFA World Cup.

Frequently asked questions

Banks are concerned that employees might use nonpublic information to gain an unfair advantage when trading event contracts on these platforms, leading to fears of insider trading.

Goldman Sachs has reportedly banned trading on bank-specific events. Morgan Stanley has existing policies, and Bank of America is issuing new prohibitive measures.

Polymarket is seeking regulatory approval to offer margin trading to US users and has applied to become a futures commission merchant.

The CFTC is involved in regulating prediction markets and would need to authorize Polymarket's request for margin trading. Lawmakers are also considering legislation to restrict public officials' participation.

What Happens Next

01Polymarket awaits authorization from the CFTC for non-fully collateralized trading.
02The impact of new prohibitive measures on employee trading behavior will become apparent.

Get the newsletter.

Pick the topics you actually care about. We'll email when there's news worth your time, on the cadence you choose. Cancel any time from your account.

Cadence

How It Developed

Wall Street banks are restricting employee trading on prediction market platforms.
Goldman Sachs reportedly banned employees from trading on bank-specific event contracts.
Morgan Stanley confirmed existing policies on employee prediction market trading.
Bank of America is in the process of issuing new prohibitive measures for employees.
The US Justice Department and CFTC highlighted a case of alleged insider trading on Polymarket.
US lawmakers have proposed legislation to restrict political prediction market trading by public officials.
Polymarket is seeking regulatory approval for margin trading in the US.
Polymarket filed an application to become a futures commission merchant.

Sources

T1
Wall Street banks tighten prediction market rules for staff as insider fears spreadWall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, are restricting employee prediction market trades as insider trading fears spread across Polymarket and Kalshi.Cointelegraph

Related Stories

Wall Street Firms Restrict Trading on Prediction Markets
10 Jul · 11:45 AM
Wall Street scrutinizes government's role in tech and chip sector
10 Jul · 9:06 AM
North Carolina Law Recognizes CFTC Authority Over Prediction Markets
10 Jul · 10:06 AM
UK Labour MPs seek permanent ban on crypto political donations
9 Jul · 3:31 PM
GMB union warns Labour MPs against capping political donations
10 Jul · 12:46 PM