Key facts
- The CLARITY Act missed its July 4 signing deadline.
- A new draft release date is set for August 7.
- Key sticking points include ethical standards for President Trump's crypto income and the scope of crypto platform regulation.
- Law enforcement groups, including Major County Sheriffs of America and the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives, now support the bill.
- Polymarket's probability of the act becoming law by 2026 has fallen to 47%.
The CLARITY Act has missed its July 4 target for signing into law, with a floor vote now anticipated after the Senate returns from its recess on July 13. The last possible day to release the draft before the summer recess is August 7.
Progress on the bill is being hindered by two primary issues that require at least seven Democrat votes for Republican passage. The first concerns ethical standards related to President Trump's cryptocurrency income, while the second involves a debate over the extent of regulation for products offered by crypto platforms. These unresolved matters have led to continued delays.
However, the bill has seen positive developments from law enforcement groups. The Major County Sheriffs of America have withdrawn their opposition to the DeFi provision, moving to a neutral stance. Additionally, the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives has publicly expressed support for the act. Senators Lummis and Tim Scott have also made public appeals for a vote to occur before the August recess.
Data from Polymarket indicates a decrease in the perceived likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law, with the probability of it being signed by the end of 2026 dropping from 55% to 47% following the missed July 4 deadline. Analysts suggest that failure to pass the bill this summer could make passage in 2026 unlikely.