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US homicide rate on track for historic low in 2026, report finds

Created at 23 Jul · 9:26 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

A new report from the Council on Criminal Justice indicates a significant decrease in homicide rates across 30 American cities, projecting a historically low annual rate for 2026. Experts suggest nationwide factors, rather than specific local policies, are driving the positive trend.

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Key Numbers

18%decrease in homicide rate from 2025 to 2026
215fewer homicides projected in 2026
30American cities tracked in the report
13crimes tracked by the report
9crime categories showing decreases
5%increase in reported shoplifting
23%drop in the lethality of crimes
13%drop in residential burglaries year over year
50%drop in burglaries compared to 2019 levels
64%increase in homicides in Norfolk, Virginia
55%increase in homicides in San Francisco

Who's Involved

Council on Criminal Justice
independent think tank that released the crime report
Adam Gelb
President and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice
John Roman
Director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center
Donald Trump
President whose supporters may point to immigration crackdowns
Joe Biden
Former President whose legislation may be cited by liberals

↳ Why This Matters

The report signifies a major positive development in public safety, potentially saving lives, reducing trauma for families, and restoring stability to communities. The findings could influence political discourse and policy discussions surrounding crime reduction strategies.

Key facts

  • Homicide rates in 30 U.S. cities have decreased by 18% in 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
  • The report from the Council on Criminal Justice projects the annual homicide rate to be the lowest in over a century.
  • Nine out of 13 tracked crime categories, including carjackings and burglaries, saw declines.
  • Shoplifting, domestic violence, sexual assaults, and drug offenses experienced slight increases.
  • Experts suggest broad, nationwide factors are responsible for the crime reduction, transcending specific local policies or political administrations.

Data from 30 American cities indicates an 18% decrease in the homicide rate from 2025 to 2026, potentially leading to the lowest annual homicide rate in over a century. The report by the Council on Criminal Justice, released Thursday, also found decreases in nine of the 13 tracked crime categories, including carjackings and residential burglaries. However, shoplifting, domestic violence, sexual assaults, and drug offenses saw slight increases. Experts suggest that broad, nationwide factors, rather than specific local policies or political leadership, are driving these positive trends. These factors may include decreased drug usage, leading to fewer violent incidents linked to illegal markets, and the impact of federal funding for post-pandemic social programming aimed at at-risk youth. While most cities saw declines, a minority experienced increases in homicides, with Norfolk, Virginia, and San Francisco showing significant rises. The report also noted a 23% drop in the lethality of violent crimes.

Frequently asked questions

The Council on Criminal Justice is an independent, nonpartisan think tank focused on criminal justice policy and research. It collects data from law enforcement sources to analyze crime trends.

The report indicated small increases in shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses.

No, roughly a third of the sampled cities defied the average decline, recording an increase in homicides from the first half of 2025 to the same period in 2026. Norfolk, Virginia, and San Francisco were among those with notable increases.

Experts suggest factors such as decreased drug usage, reduced violence linked to illegal markets, and the impact of federal funding for social programs that support at-risk youth are contributing to the decline.

What Happens Next

01Final homicide numbers for 2026 will be released at the end of the year.

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Cadence

How It Developed

Data from 30 U.S. cities shows an 18% decrease in homicides in 2026 compared to 2025.
The report tracked 13 crimes, with nine categories showing decreases.
Shoplifting, domestic violence, sexual assaults, and drug offenses saw small increases.
Experts attribute the positive changes to nationwide factors exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
Some cities, including Norfolk and San Francisco, saw increases in homicides.
Experts suggest factors like decreased drug use and federal funding for social programs contribute to the decline.
The Council on Criminal Justice calls the trend a significant public safety development.
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Sources

T1
US on track to have historically low number of homicides in 2026, report saysAP News

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