Key facts
- The Turnberry agreement, one year old, imposed 15% US tariffs on EU imports while the EU removed duties on most US industrial products.
- The EU pledged €520 billion in US investments and €700 billion in US energy purchases by 2028.
- Despite trade disputes, EU-US trade rose 4.5% to €1.8 trillion in 2025, with US importers paying €31 billion in duties.
- The EU is on track to meet its investment pledges, with EU buyers importing over $250 billion in US energy products in 2025.
- Negotiations are ongoing for EU tariff exemptions on goods worth €150 billion, and on US steel and aluminium tariffs.
- The US is preparing to introduce new tariffs based on forced labour and overcapacity investigations, which the EU will accept if they stay below the 15% cap.
One year after the Turnberry agreement between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump, transatlantic trade relations remain complex and strained. The deal, struck in Scotland, imposed 15% US tariffs on EU imports while the EU committed to removing duties on most US industrial products, alongside pledges of €520 billion in US investments and €700 billion in US energy purchases by 2028.
Despite initial hopes that the agreement would resolve trade disputes, the past year has seen continued threats of new tariffs from the US and a slowdown in the agreement's implementation. The EU froze ratification due to ongoing threats, eventually removing its tariffs on July 1. On the US side, a Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 found the 2025 tariffs illegal, leading to the adoption of new duties under a different legal basis. These new tariffs are set to expire on July 24 unless extended by Congress.
Transatlantic trade has shown resilience, with EU-US goods and services trade increasing by 4.5% to €1.8 trillion in 2025, partly due to companies rushing shipments before tariffs took effect. US importers paid approximately €31 billion in additional duties in 2025, though some have been refunded following the Supreme Court's decision. The EU is reportedly on track to meet its investment pledges, with EU companies having pledged €242 billion in investments and EU buyers importing over $250 billion in US energy products in 2025, driven by the Iran war and phasing out of Russian gas.
Negotiations are ongoing for tariff exemptions on hundreds of EU products, covering around €150 billion in exports, and discussions continue regarding US steel and aluminium tariffs. The EU hopes to restore pre-existing tariff levels for products like Roquefort, olive oil, wines, and spirits. The US, however, maintains 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium and aims to boost domestic production.
The US is preparing to introduce new tariffs based on investigations into forced labour and overcapacity, which European officials expect. While the EU argues it has its own legislation against forced labour, it will not oppose new US tariffs if they remain within the 15% cap set by the Turnberry agreement. Additionally, a US investigation into German drug pricing could lead to further punitive tariffs.