Key facts
- Senators are demanding a crackdown on prediction markets that allow trading on wildfire outcomes.
- Wildfire experts and firefighters are appalled by the existence of these markets.
- Concerns include perverse incentives for arson and monetizing natural disasters.
- Polymarket states it does not profit from outcomes and claims to offer accurate information.
- Polymarket asserts it currently has no wildfire-related markets.
US senators are demanding a crackdown on prediction markets that allow users to trade on the outcomes of wildfires. Wildfire experts and firefighters have expressed strong disapproval of these markets, citing concerns that they could create perverse incentives for arson and other destructive activities, and that they monetize devastating natural disasters.
Polymarket, a rival platform, stated that it does not profit from outcomes and that users come to the platform for information. A spokesperson for Polymarket added that while risks are acknowledged, removing these markets would make accurate information less accessible. The spokesperson also noted that Polymarket currently has no markets on wildfires and has not for some time.