Key facts
- Senate Republicans are skeptical of advancing the House's $95 billion budget blueprint.
- The blueprint includes funding for the Iran war, farm aid, and GOP election proposals.
- Concerns exist about spending offsets and the political impact of votes before the midterms.
- Senator John Thune has expressed uncertainty about the bill's passage.
- Senator Mitch McConnell's absence complicates the vote count for Senate Republicans.
The House's $95 billion budget blueprint, a key step in a two-part plan for funding the Iran war and farm aid, faces significant hurdles in the Senate. Speaker Mike Johnson pushed the measure through the House, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been candid about the difficulties ahead, and many Senate Republicans are expressing skepticism.
Senator John Kennedy stated that he does not believe Senator Thune will bring the blueprint up for a vote. Concerns among Republicans include the demand for spending offsets from fiscal hawks, while defense and farm-state Republicans seek increased spending. The political risk of forcing vulnerable incumbents to take potentially unpopular votes just months before the midterm elections is also a major deterrent.
With Senator Mitch McConnell absent indefinitely, Thune can only afford to lose two Republican votes for passage, given unified Democratic opposition. This reality has led some Republicans to question the viability of the entire effort. Senator John Cornyn expressed uncertainty about the availability of 50 votes for a reconciliation bill. Senate leaders are currently prioritizing government funding ahead of the September 30 deadline, with ongoing bipartisan talks for a short-term continuing resolution.
Some Republicans, like Senator Ron Johnson, argue that the Senate must take initial steps on a budget resolution before the August recess to have any chance of passing a third reconciliation bill by year's end. However, others, including Senator Susan Collins, prefer a longer continuing resolution and are not fans of reconciliation. There is also concern that including farm assistance could allow Democrats to force votes on politically sensitive issues like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
Furthermore, some Senate Republicans view the House effort as a midterm messaging exercise rather than a genuine legislative attempt, citing a lack of cross-chamber coordination. Senator Thom Tillis has vowed to use all available means to slow down government if components of the SAVE America Act are included in a reconciliation bill from the House. The question of whether the "juice is worth the squeeze" for a reconciliation bill, as posed by Thune, highlights the internal divisions and hesitations within the Senate GOP.