Key facts
- Republican redistricting efforts in Southern states have motivated Black voters, according to a VoteHub study.
- The study analyzed 78 Black Belt counties, finding a leftward shift in partisan turnout and increased voter participation.
- States like Alabama and Louisiana saw significant surges in Black voter turnout following the Supreme Court's decision on the Voting Rights Act.
- Alabama's Greene County reported over 50% turnout in a primary election, with a 27.6 percentage point positive turnout differential.
A new analysis indicates that Republican efforts to diminish the political influence of Black voters through redistricting have inadvertently spurred increased turnout and a leftward political shift in Southern counties. Following the Supreme Court's decision in late April that effectively weakened protections under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, several Southern states, including Louisiana, Florida, Tennessee, and Alabama, moved to redraw congressional maps. Mississippi's governor also expressed a desire for legislative map redrawing. The analysis, conducted by VoteHub, a data-focused election organization, examined 78 Black Belt counties. It found that all but one of these counties experienced a leftward shift in partisan turnout compared to 2024. Furthermore, majority-Black counties that held elections after the landmark Supreme Court decision saw a surge in voter participation. This trend was evident in the primaries held earlier this year in Louisiana, South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia. Louisiana, the state from which the Supreme Court's decision stemmed, initially disregarded cast votes until new maps could be drawn. Alabama, meanwhile, quickly divided its majority-Black districts. While South Carolina and Georgia also considered diluting Black political power through map redrawing, these efforts were not ultimately implemented. Alabama demonstrated one of the most pronounced shifts, with significant increases in Black voter mobilization. Greene County in Alabama surpassed 50% turnout in its primary election, showing a positive turnout differential of 27.6 percentage points. Bullock, Lowndes, Macon, and Montgomery counties, all within Alabama's second congressional district targeted by Republican legislators, also experienced substantial turnout increases. Bullock County, which is over 70% Black, recorded the third-highest turnout in the state. In Louisiana's primaries, Black voters constituted 35.7% of the electorate, exceeding their 32.1% share of the state's population. While overall voter turnout increased across partisan groups and races, 30.9% of Black voters cast ballots, a figure 3.2 points higher than that of white voters. In contrast, states like Mississippi and North Carolina, which held their primaries before the Supreme Court's decision, showed less dramatic increases in turnout. In these states, turnout in majority-Black counties only outpaced statewide averages by an average of 1.1 percentage points.