Key facts
- 51% of UK adults believe Andy Burnham should call an election to gain legitimacy if he becomes prime minister.
- 34% believe he could lead a legitimate administration without a new general election.
- 57% of respondents think a general election should be held to choose the next government.
- Burnham is expected to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister later this month.
- 75% of current Reform UK voters and 63% of Conservative voters believe Burnham needs an election for legitimacy.
- 34% of Labour supporters think Burnham should seek a new mandate.
A majority of adults in the U.K. believe Andy Burnham should call an election to secure a mandate if he takes over from Keir Starmer as prime minister, according to a POLITICO Poll by Public First. The survey found 51 percent of respondents think Burnham “should call and try to win an election to give his government legitimacy,” while only 34 percent believe he would lead a legitimate administration without a new general election.
Burnham is poised to replace Starmer, who has set a timetable for his resignation, in No. 10 Downing Street later this month. Burnham, who became an MP just last week, is already facing demands from opposition politicians to call an election, arguing he was not a candidate in the last general election two years ago, which Labour won decisively.
Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, noted that the public prefers leaders to be chosen through elections, stating, “As with the Conservatives before them, the public responds badly to the idea that leaders of the country are decided in rooms they are not in.” Burnham, formerly the mayor of Greater Manchester, won a by-election to represent Makerfield, enabling his bid for Labour leadership.
Burnham's allies have dismissed calls for an election, with Burnham himself suggesting his reform plans are consistent with Labour's 2024 manifesto. However, the poll indicates voters are unconvinced, with 57 percent believing a general election should be held to choose the next government, and 51 percent stating the country needs an election to determine leadership.
Men, individuals aged 65 and over, and respondents in the East of England were most inclined to support Burnham calling an election. Among those who preferred an election, 42 percent felt the public should always choose the prime minister. Wride warned that Burnham risks facing legitimacy challenges before his leadership even begins, as the public largely anticipates his premiership without a contest.
The primary reasons cited for opposing an election were disruption and cost (37 percent) and voter fatigue (12 percent). Regarding the Labour leadership contest, 64 percent of respondents felt the outcome was predetermined, with only 21 percent viewing it as a genuine contest. Burnham was named by 59 percent as the most likely next prime minister.
Interestingly, 44 percent of respondents felt Burnham had a stronger right to govern than Starmer because he better reflects current public sentiment, while 25 percent believed Starmer's right to lead stemmed from winning the last general election. The poll also noted that Labour has been trailing Reform UK in recent polls, and while Burnham might narrow that gap, he could still struggle to maintain Labour's parliamentary majority.