Key facts
- Andy Burnham, expected to become the next UK prime minister, has a national net trust rating of +11 percent.
- A POLITICO Poll reveals a significant regional trust gap, with Northern England showing a +22 percent net trust and Southern England a -3 percent net trust.
- Burnham, currently mayor of Greater Manchester, plans to establish a "Number 10 North" office, signaling a focus on rebalancing power from London.
- Despite regional skepticism, the poll suggests Burnham could outperform Nigel Farage's Reform UK in a hypothetical general election.
- Burnham leads Farage on key issues such as improving the NHS, running the economy, and representing the whole country.
Andy Burnham, poised to become the United Kingdom's next prime minister, faces a significant trust deficit in Southern England, according to a new POLITICO Poll conducted by Public First. While Burnham enjoys strong support in Northern England, where he has served as Mayor of Greater Manchester for nine years, voters in the South remain skeptical.
The poll reveals a national net trust rating of +11 percent for Burnham, but this figure masks a stark regional divide. Northern English voters show a net trust of +22 percent, contrasting sharply with Southern English voters who give him a negative net trust score of -3 percent. This regional disparity extends to perceptions of his leadership and his potential as prime minister.
Burnham's political platform centers on rebalancing power away from London and revitalizing regions that have historically suffered neglect, a philosophy he terms "Manchesterism." He plans to establish a "Number 10 North" office in Manchester, signaling his commitment to this agenda. However, this regional focus may alienate voters in the South, who perceive him as more left-wing than his Northern counterparts.
Despite these reservations, the poll suggests Burnham holds a strong position to challenge Nigel Farage and the Reform UK party in a future general election. He leads Farage on numerous key issues, including managing the economy and improving public services, although Farage holds an advantage on tackling illegal immigration and relations with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Burnham's path to Number 10 Downing Street appears largely unopposed, with Labour lawmakers anticipating his ascension. However, the poll underscores the challenge he faces in uniting the country and convincing voters beyond his Northern stronghold that he will govern in their interests.