Key facts
- One Nation is experiencing unprecedented polling success in Australia, driven by economic pessimism.
- Economists describe the current situation as a 'stagflation impulse' with high inflation and stagnant growth.
- The party links housing affordability and economic woes to immigration, a key campaign focus.
- Consumer sentiment is at a low point, exacerbated by rising interest rates and housing costs.
- Real hourly wages in Australia are falling, according to an OECD report.
One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, is experiencing a surge in popularity in Australia, reaching unprecedented polling numbers. This rise is attributed to a widespread economic pessimism among voters, described by some economists as a 'stagflation impulse' characterized by a cost-of-living squeeze and concerns about financial futures, including job security.
The party is effectively leveraging issues such as high housing costs, which are pricing younger generations out of home ownership, and linking them to immigration. While economic pressures are not new, One Nation's ability to connect these ailments to immigration, a core focus for the party, has been a key strategy. This approach allows them to address immediate public concerns while promoting their preferred agenda.
Australia's housing affordability crisis is a complex issue stemming from decades of undersupply and tax settings favouring investors. While periods of high migration can strain immediate housing supply, they also provide essential workers for construction and help broaden the tax base. Economists like Shane Oliver caution against drastic immigration cuts, which could lead to labor shortages and economic struggles with an aging population.
One Nation's narrative, arguing that immigration policy has led to a national crisis, has gained some traction, partly due to the Coalition linking migration rates to housing supply. The party utilizes social media to promise simple solutions to housing affordability. The current surge in support appears linked to a recent wave of cost-of-living increases, worsened by global events like the Iran war, which have depleted household savings and resilience.
An OECD report highlights that real hourly wages in Australia are falling, indicating that living costs are outpacing income growth. Political scientists suggest that voters shift allegiances in response to a series of economic shocks, leading to a loss of trust in political elites. One Nation's growing influence will be tested in the upcoming federal election, with economic conditions expected to be a significant factor.