Key facts
- New York Democrats' statewide success since 2004 has been significantly aided by strong performance in New York City.
- New York City's electoral weight diminishes in years without mayoral, gubernatorial, or presidential contests.
- The 2023 turnout in New York City was atypically high due to local council elections coinciding with redistricting.
- In 2007, a year with a statewide referendum and low NYC turnout, the city accounted for only 10.6% of statewide votes.
- Upcoming local races, including district attorney contests, are not anticipated to drive significant voter engagement.
New York Democrats are facing a complex electoral math problem for an upcoming redistricting referendum, primarily due to anticipated low voter turnout. Historically, the party has leveraged strong performance in New York City, which typically comprises about a third of the statewide electorate, to secure victories even in less favorable regions. However, this advantage diminishes significantly in years without major local or statewide contests to drive engagement.
The city's electoral weight was evident in the 2024 presidential election, where it accounted for 34 percent of the statewide electorate. This share dropped to 22 percent in 2023, a year that saw unusually high turnout due to local council elections being held for two-year terms as a result of redistricting. These council members will not be on the ballot again in 2025 for their regular four-year terms.
The last comparable instance of a statewide referendum with a sparse New York City electoral landscape was in 2007. In that year, New York City represented only 10.6 percent of the statewide turnout. Turnout in Brooklyn was less than 6 percent, and Manhattan, with a population of 1.6 million, saw fewer ballots cast than Oneida County, which had a population of 235,000.
Barring unforeseen special elections, there are no local races on the horizon that are expected to significantly boost turnout for the upcoming referendum. District attorney contests in the Bronx and Queens are scheduled for 2027 and are unlikely to be competitive, given that Republicans have not won these offices since 1920. Similarly, the district attorney race on Staten Island is not predicted to be a close contest, and even if it were, increased turnout there might not align with Democratic strategists' goals due to the borough's leaning.
Consequently, Democratic campaigns will not only need to persuade voters on the merits of the amendment but also convince them of its importance enough to cast a ballot in a year they might otherwise not participate.