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Nearly 1m Britons to pay higher tax rates due to fiscal drag

Created at 22 Jul · 6:06 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Analysis by the Taxpayers' Alliance indicates that nearly one million Britons will be pushed into higher tax bands due to fiscal drag, a 'stealth' tax caused by frozen tax thresholds. This is projected to increase average tax payments significantly.

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Key Numbers

1mBrits impacted by fiscal drag
500,000more people paying basic rate tax
410,000more people paying higher rate tax
70,000more people paying additional rate tax
five timesincrease in additional rate taxpayers
£640average increase in income tax this year
£1,040average increase in income tax since 2024
72.9%total income tax from higher/additional rate taxpayers

Who's Involved

Taxpayers’ Alliance
analysed data on fiscal drag and tax bands
Rachel Reeves
former Chancellor who extended freeze on personal tax thresholds
Andy Burnham
Prime Minister signalling review of personal allowance band
Julian Jessop
independent economist predicting tax hikes
Sir Mel Stride
shadow Chancellor criticising government's fiscal plans
Nearly 1m Britons to pay higher tax rates due to fiscal drag

↳ Why This Matters

The analysis highlights a significant increase in the tax burden on a large segment of the UK population due to frozen tax thresholds, potentially impacting household finances and government revenue.

Key facts

  • Nearly one million people will be pushed into higher tax bands due to frozen tax thresholds, according to the Taxpayers' Alliance.
  • Approximately 500,000 more individuals will pay the basic rate of 20% income tax.
  • An additional 410,000 people will fall into the higher rate tax bracket of 40%.
  • The number of additional rate taxpayers has multiplied five times.
  • Average income tax payments are projected to increase by £640 this year compared to the financial year ending 2025.

Nearly one million people in the UK are expected to pay higher income tax rates due to 'fiscal drag,' a phenomenon where frozen tax thresholds mean wage growth pushes individuals into higher tax bands. Analysis by the Taxpayers' Alliance indicates that this 'stealth tax' will affect approximately 500,000 more people in the 20% basic rate band, 410,000 more in the 40% higher rate band, and an additional 70,000 in the 45% additional rate band. The number of additional rate taxpayers has reportedly multiplied five times.

On average, individuals are projected to pay £640 more in income tax this year compared to the financial year ending in 2025, and £1,040 more than in 2024. The freeze on personal tax thresholds, extended by former Chancellor Rachel Reeves until April 2031, is intended to increase government revenue and fund welfare spending.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has suggested he will examine the tax burden on workers and is open to revising the £12,571 personal allowance band. However, his spokesman indicated no tax cut plans are currently being drawn up for this year, though Burnham stated he would 'look at that at the Budget.' Independent economist Julian Jessop anticipates tax hikes at the upcoming Budget are 'pretty much guaranteed' due to government pledges on defense spending, VAT cuts on energy bills, rough sleeping initiatives, and junior doctor pay increases. Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride criticized the government's fiscal plans, suggesting they do not add up and will lead to increased borrowing and higher taxes.

Frequently asked questions

Fiscal drag occurs when tax thresholds are frozen, meaning that as wages increase, more of an individual's income falls into higher tax bands, effectively increasing their tax burden without an explicit tax rate hike.

According to the Taxpayers' Alliance, nearly one million Britons will be impacted by fiscal drag this year, with hundreds of thousands more falling into higher tax brackets.

Brits are expected to pay an average of £640 more in income tax this year compared to the financial year ending 2025, and £1,040 more than in 2024.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has indicated he will review the personal allowance band and 'look at' tax cuts at the Budget, but his spokesman stated there are no current plans for tax cuts this year.

What Happens Next

01Prime Minister Andy Burnham will 'look at' tax cuts at the upcoming Budget.
02The government is expected to announce tax hikes at the Budget.

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Cadence

How It Developed

Fiscal drag will impact 1 million Britons this year, according to Taxpayers' Alliance analysis.
Around 500,000 more people will pay the 20% basic rate of income tax.
An additional 410,000 people will fall under the 40% higher rate tax band.
A further 70,000 individuals will be subject to the 45% additional tax rate.
The number of additional rate taxpayers has increased fivefold.
Average income tax payments are expected to rise by £640 this year compared to FY ending 2025.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has indicated he will review the personal allowance band.
An independent economist stated tax hikes at the upcoming Budget are 'pretty much guaranteed'.

Sources

T1
Nearly 1m people to pay higher tax ‘by stealth’City AM

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