Key facts
- Nearly 145,000 Australians with autism are projected to lose NDIS support by 2031.
- The reforms aim to refocus the NDIS on individuals with significant and complex needs.
- A functional capacity test will be introduced, impacting eligibility.
- The NDIS is facing significant cost growth, projected to more than double in a decade.
- Children under 18 are disproportionately affected by the proposed changes.
The Australian federal government is proceeding with reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) that are expected to remove almost 145,000 individuals with autism from the scheme by 2031. Internal health department documents indicate that these changes, aimed at narrowing the NDIS's focus to participants with significant and complex needs, will disproportionately affect children and young people.
The government estimates that without intervention, the NDIS's annual cost will more than double from $52 billion to $117 billion within a decade. Autism is the fastest-growing cohort within the NDIS, accounting for 42% of participants. The proposed reforms, including the introduction of a functional capacity test, are projected to reduce the scheme's growth rate significantly.
Of the estimated 241,000 participants who will eventually lose eligibility by June 2031, 60% (144,600) will have autism or developmental delays as their primary disability. A substantial majority, 64% (154,240), will be aged 18 or under. The government suggests that some individuals no longer eligible for the NDIS may find support through community and mainstream services or new foundational support programs.
NDIS Minister Mark Butler has stated that the scheme is intended for those with 'significant and permanent disability' and is growing too rapidly. The Thriving Kids program is one of the new state-run services planned to support children under nine with mild developmental delays and autism who are shifted off the NDIS. However, a parliamentary human rights committee has warned that the proposed changes could be retrogressive and limit human rights. Autism advocacy groups have also expressed concerns, particularly regarding the implementation of functional capacity tests for individuals with autism.