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Mexico expects no change from new US tariffs due to USMCA exemptions

Created at 23 Jul · 10:54 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard stated that the country will not see changes in effective tariffs due to new U.S. duties, as most goods will be exempted under the USMCA. Approximately 85% of Mexican exports to the U.S. will remain tariff-free.

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Key Numbers

10%new tariff rate on some goods
12.5%new tariff rate on some goods
60trading partners affected by new tariffs
85%Mexican exports to U.S. to remain tariff-free
10%goods subject to expiring Trade Act measure
1974Trade Act section governing expiring tariffs
2026expected year for provisional USMCA agreements
2027expected year for complex USMCA negotiations to conclude

Who's Involved

Marcelo Ebrard
Mexico's Economy Minister
Donald Trump
U.S. President
Claudia Sheinbaum
Mexican President
Jamieson Greer
U.S. Trade Representative
Mexico expects no change from new US tariffs due to USMCA exemptions

↳ Why This Matters

The U.S. government's imposition of new tariffs could have significant economic implications for affected countries. Mexico's ability to maintain tariff-free trade for a large portion of its exports under the USMCA is crucial for its economy and its ongoing trade relationship with the United States.

Key facts

  • Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard stated new U.S. tariffs will not change the effective tariff rate for Mexico.
  • Approximately 85% of Mexican exports to the U.S. will remain tariff-free due to USMCA exemptions.
  • New U.S. tariffs are set to take effect as prior tariffs expire, applying to the same 10% of goods.
  • The USMCA review process is underway, with technical teams from both countries meeting.
  • U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expects provisional USMCA agreements by the end of 2026, with complex issues extending into 2027.

Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard stated that the country anticipates no change in its effective tariff rates despite the U.S. government's announcement of new tariffs on approximately 60 trading partners. Ebrard explained that exemptions under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will ensure that about 85% of Mexican exports to the United States continue to enter duty-free.

According to Ebrard, a further 10% of goods were subject to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a measure set to expire on Friday. The newly announced duties will apply to this same 10% of goods as the prior measure expires, effectively maintaining the existing tariff treatment for these items.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated that her administration has been actively engaged in discussions, having attended a hearing in Washington to argue against new tariffs on Mexican goods. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, meanwhile, anticipates provisional agreements on the USMCA review by the end of 2026, though more complex negotiations concerning rules of origin and labor commitments are expected to continue through 2027. Greer also suggested that the USMCA review's progress could be contingent on Mexico's cooperation in other bilateral areas, such as the water treaty.

Frequently asked questions

The U.S. government announced new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on approximately 60 trading partners.

Mexico's Economy Minister stated that the country expects no change in effective tariffs due to USMCA exemptions, which will keep about 85% of exports tariff-free.

The USMCA is the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a trade pact that provides exemptions for goods complying with its rules of origin.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expects provisional agreements on the USMCA review by the end of 2026.

What Happens Next

01New U.S. tariffs are set to go into effect on Friday.
02Technical teams from Mexico and the United States will continue negotiations on the USMCA review.
03Provisional agreements on the USMCA are expected by the end of 2026.
04Complex issues within the USMCA review are scheduled for negotiation through 2027.

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Cadence

How It Developed

The U.S. government announced new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on 60 trading partners.
Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard stated the country would see no change in effective tariffs.
Ebrard cited exemptions under the USMCA for approximately 85% of Mexican exports to the U.S.
Another 10% of goods are subject to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which will expire Friday.
The new duties will apply to the same 10% of goods as the expiring measure, maintaining tariff treatment.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated her team presented a case against new tariffs on Mexican goods during a Washington hearing.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expects provisional agreements on the USMCA review by the end of 2026.
Greer indicated that complex issues like rules of origin and labor commitments will be negotiated through 2027.
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Sources

T1
Mexico to see no change from new US tariffs, economy minister saysReuters
T2
Mexico navigates USMCA review amid threat of new US tariffsenglish.elpais.com
T2
Mexico to see no change from new US tariffs, economy minister saystradingview.com

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