Key facts
- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a new poll.
- Lula has 45% of voting intentions in a potential second-round runoff, up from 44% in June.
- Bolsonaro has 37% of voting intentions, down from 38% in June.
- In a first-round scenario, Lula garners 40% and Bolsonaro 28%.
- The poll surveyed 2,004 people between July 10-13 with a margin of error of two percentage points.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has widened his lead over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the run-up to the October presidential election, according to a Quaest poll commissioned by brokerage Genial. The poll shows Lula with 45% of voting intentions in a potential second-round runoff, compared to 37% for Bolsonaro, who is currently the main opposition hopeful. This represents an increase from a June Quaest poll where Lula led Bolsonaro 44% to 38%. In a first-round scenario, Lula would receive 40% of the vote, Bolsonaro 28%, Ronaldo Caiado 4%, Renan Santos 3%, and Romeu Zema 2%. The survey, which polled 2,004 people between July 10 and 13, has a margin of error of two percentage points. This is the first Quaest survey following recent political developments, including a corruption investigation targeting a senior Lula ally and discussions regarding accountability for new U.S. tariff threats against Brazil.