Key facts
- Galaxy Digital reduced its 2026 odds for the CLARITY Act becoming law to 50%.
- The bill faces a narrowing legislative window before the Senate's August recess.
- President Donald Trump's actions have intensified competition for Senate floor time.
- The CLARITY Act aims to create the first US regulatory framework for digital assets.
- The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May but faces criticism.
Galaxy Digital has lowered its probability of the CLARITY Act, a bill aiming to establish a US regulatory framework for digital assets, becoming law in 2026 to 50%. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, cited the shrinking legislative window before the Senate's August recess and increased competition for floor time as key reasons for the downgrade. This marks a reduction from previous estimates of 60% on June 9 and 75% on May 22.
The intensified competition for legislative attention stems partly from President Donald Trump's decision to delay signing a bipartisan housing bill until Congress passes the SAVE Act, which introduces a proof-of-citizenship elections bill. This adds another contentious issue to an already crowded Senate agenda.
The CLARITY Act is scheduled for a House hearing on July 17. Despite bipartisan support, the bill has faced criticism, particularly from Democrats and the banking industry, who argue it could create regulatory loopholes for crypto firms offering yields on stablecoins. The US Senate is currently in a work period until July 10 and will begin its traditional five-week August recess on Aug. 8, returning on September 14. Other critical legislative items, including FISA reauthorization and the National Defense Authorization Act, are also vying for floor time.
Earlier in June, over 200 crypto companies and organizations urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act. Conversely, a coalition of law enforcement and Catholic organizations has expressed concerns to White House officials about potential oversight gaps the bill might create regarding illicit activities.