Key facts
- Democrats believe Latino voters in South Texas are shifting back to their party, potentially impacting House control.
- Republicans had aimed to gain seats in South Texas through redistricting after Trump's strong performance in 2024.
- Immigration raids and hardline deportation policies are cited as reasons for a potential backlash against Republicans.
- Local business leaders and residents express concerns about labor shortages and fear caused by immigration enforcement.
- Some Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 indicate they may not vote Republican in the upcoming election.
Democrats are expressing optimism that Latino voters in South Texas, who significantly backed Donald Trump in 2024, are experiencing "buyer's remorse" and may shift back to the Democratic party. This potential realignment could be crucial for Democrats aiming to regain control of the House of Representatives, particularly in the heavily Hispanic South Texas region where Republicans had hoped to capitalize on their gains through redistricting.
Control of the House could hinge on three newly drawn districts in South Texas, which Republicans aimed to win. However, Democrats believe these districts are competitive, and they might even secure a fourth seat. Republican strategist Adam Kincaid, who drew the Texas map, dismissed the idea that recent House results should influence redistricting, stating that statewide results are the proper basis for drawing new districts.
Incumbent Democratic Representatives Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez are running in majority-Hispanic districts against well-funded opponents. Sandwiched between them is a district where Tejano music star Bobby Pulido is challenging Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz, who flipped a historically Democratic seat in 2022. In another district near San Antonio, Democratic recruit Johnny Garcia faces GOP businessman Carlos De La Cruz, the congresswoman's brother.
Trump's success in South Texas in 2024, winning 14 of 18 border counties and all new South Texas districts by at least 10 points, was largely attributed to concerns over President Biden's border policy. However, Democrats argue that the Trump administration's aggressive immigration raids and deportation policies are now alienating the very voters they courted.
Local business leaders, particularly in the construction industry, have warned that immigration raids are causing labor shortages and increasing costs. At a recent event in Pharr, attendees expressed frustration, with Ronnie Cavazos, president of the South Texas Builders Association, taking blame for voting for the policies. Democrats acknowledge the failure of the Biden administration's border policy but contend that overly aggressive ICE actions are harming the economy and swaying voters back. Gonzalez stated that while deporting criminals and securing the border are desired, losing half the labor force due to "hyper-aggressive ICE raids" is unacceptable.
Incidents like the detention of a nun by ICE and the killing of an undocumented man by an ICE officer have heightened concerns. Bobby Pulido suggested voters feel "duped" by initial promises that enforcement would only target criminals. Republicans, like Carlos De La Cruz, aim to counter this by emphasizing their perceived strength on the economy. However, business owners like Esmeralda Knapp, who voted for Trump in 2024, expressed disappointment with the impact of immigration policies on their businesses and stated they would not support Republicans in the upcoming election.