Key facts
- Democrats are strategizing to capitalize on Republicans nominating far-right candidates in Arizona's upcoming primaries.
- The 1st congressional district is a key open seat targeted by Democrats.
- In the 1st district Republican primary, Jay Feely is backed by Donald Trump, while Joseph Chaplik aligns with the far-right Arizona Freedom Caucus.
- Marlene Galan-Woods, a former Republican, is the establishment-backed Democratic candidate in the 1st district.
- Republican U.S. Representative Andy Biggs is a leading contender for the gubernatorial nomination and is considered a polarizing figure.
- Cook Political Report has adjusted its forecast for the Arizona governorship to 'lean Democratic'.
Voters in Arizona are set to participate in primary elections that will determine the nominees for key congressional seats and the governorship, with Democrats anticipating that the nomination of far-right Republican candidates could benefit them in the November midterm elections. The state, known for its competitive elections and independent streak, has a slight Republican advantage in registered voters, but a significant number of independents make it a closely divided battleground.
In the 1st congressional district, an open seat following Representative David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid, Democrats are prioritizing this race to bolster their chances of regaining House majority control. The Republican primary features former football player Jay Feely, endorsed by President Donald Trump, and Joseph Chaplik, who is aligned with the far-right Arizona Freedom Caucus. John Trobough, identifying as a 'Reagan conservative,' is also competing. On the Democratic side, the party establishment supports moderate Marlene Galan-Woods, who is facing a rematch against emergency room doctor Amish Shah, whom she narrowly lost to in the 2024 primary before Shah was defeated by Schweikert in the general election.
Political analysts view the 1st congressional district race as a toss-up, especially since it was won by Joe Biden in 2020 but by Donald Trump in 2024. The 6th congressional district is also considered a toss-up, with no primary challengers for the incumbent Republican or the Democratic candidate.
The gubernatorial race is also under scrutiny. Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs faces a Republican field led by far-right U.S. Representative Andy Biggs, a proponent of 2020 election denial. Cook Political Report has shifted its forecast for this race from a toss-up to 'lean Democratic,' citing Biggs' potentially polarizing nature. Democrats hope this narrative extends to other races, including three U.S. House seats.