Key facts
- Odds for the Clarity Act to be signed into law in 2026 fell to 39% on Polymarket.
- President Donald Trump disclosed over $1.4 billion in crypto-related income for 2025.
- Democrats are raising concerns about conflicts of interest related to Trump's crypto income.
- Senate calendar pressure and delayed floor action are threatening the crypto bill's passage.
- Trump reported significant income from TRUMP meme coin licensing, WLFI token sales, and USD1 stablecoin stakes.
The likelihood of the Clarity Act being signed into law this year has significantly decreased, with odds falling to 39% on prediction markets like Polymarket. This decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including a tight legislative timeline, opposition from traditional banks, and demands for stronger ethics safeguards.
President Donald Trump's recent financial disclosure, revealing over $1.4 billion in crypto-related income for 2025, has intensified the debate around conflicts of interest. Democrats, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, are using this disclosure to push for stricter provisions within the Clarity Act, arguing that it should prevent public officials and their families from profiting from crypto businesses.
Trump's reported income includes substantial amounts from licensing deals tied to the TRUMP meme coin, WLFI token sales, and USD1 stablecoin stake sales. He also holds significant investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt has been engaged in negotiations with senators regarding these ethics concerns, but progress has been limited.
Further complicating the legislative path, the Senate's adjournment before the July recess has increased uncertainty. Additionally, President Trump has indicated a refusal to sign certain bills, such as the Housing bill containing a CBDC ban, until other legislative priorities are met, such as the SAVE America voting bill.