Key facts
- Odds for the Clarity Act to be signed into law by 2026 have fallen to 27% on the Polymarket prediction market.
- US Senate Majority Leader John Thune prioritized nominations and a Russia sanctions bill, delaying the Clarity Act.
- Senators Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis are finalizing a bipartisan ethics counteroffer for the Clarity Act.
- The counteroffer is expected to be sent to the White House soon.
- Major financial firms like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs, along with the CTA, support the Clarity Act.
- SEC Chair Paul Atkins indicated the SEC can create crypto rules independently of the Clarity Act.
The odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 have fallen to a new low of 27% on the Polymarket prediction market, according to reports from Wednesday. This decline follows the US Senate's decision to place the cryptocurrency bill on hold to prioritize voting on a Russia sanctions bill and federal nominations.
Despite the setbacks, Senators Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis are reportedly finalizing a bipartisan ethics counteroffer related to the Clarity Act, which they intend to send to the White House for approval in the coming days. Key proposals in the counteroffer may include attorneys general enforcing ethics provisions, though negotiations and lobbying efforts, particularly concerning stablecoin yield concerns, could further delay votes.
Industry participants note that the legislative window is narrowing significantly ahead of the August recess, with many arguing that initiating the cloture process before the recess is crucial for the bill's advancement. Despite opposition from some large banks, numerous Wall Street firms, including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and SoFi, have publicly endorsed the Clarity Act. Senator Cynthia Lummis has refuted claims that all of Wall Street opposes the bill.
The Consumer Technology Association (CTA), a major US tech industry group, has also urged Congress to pass the legislation, citing its importance in preventing capital flight and job losses. The CTA stated that delays cause investment to move to jurisdictions with clearer regulatory frameworks, potentially costing America jobs and leadership in digital finance.
Meanwhile, SEC Chair Paul Atkins has indicated that the Securities and Exchange Commission is prepared to develop cryptocurrency rules even if Congress does not pass the Clarity Act, stating the SEC is "ready, willing and able" to do so.