Why Cem Karsan Says Stocks Ignore a Bond Market in Free Fall

Cem Karsan joins Jermal Chandler on tasty CRUMBS to explain why the long end of the bond market is breaking down, and he frames it as four structural forces. Two that get all the attention: structural inflation, and international buyers stepping away. And two he says matter more and get ignored: the massive wave of 2020-21 debt now rolling over all at once, and the crowding-out of the bond market by the enormous borrowing funding the AI CapEx build-out, which is pushing credit-default swaps higher. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Yields at 20-year highs 00:40 A quiet tape that keeps melting up 02:00 The MOVE versus the VIX 02:30 Real suppression of equity vol 03:00 The bond market bullies everyone 03:30 Four reasons the long end is breaking 04:00 The refinancing tidal wave 04:30 AI CapEx crowding out bonds 05:30 Credit-default swaps rising 06:00 No bids left for bonds 07:00 Owning stocks at a 4% yield 08:00 Is the earnings growth even real #tastylive #tastycrumbs #cemkarsan #bonds #treasuryyields #movevix #aicapex #creditdefaultswaps #macro #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.