Why Brent Kochuba Calls This a Transient Rally, Not a Real One

Stocks ripped back into tech today as French bond yields eased and oil dropped. But Brent Kochuba isn't buying the bounce as sticky, and the tell is the volatility surface. The VIX got crushed, yet the vol surface and skew are basically unchanged, so the drop is just skew sliding, not real vol coming out. For a rally to be material he wants longer-dated vol to contract, and it isn't. His gamma map goes negative-gamma forward through the Fed, so he calls the move transient. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 A steep reversal back into tech 00:40 French yields ease, risk-on returns 01:30 Oil drops and the market bottoms 02:20 The 0DTE condor pinning the tape 03:20 Reading implied vol for stickiness 04:10 The vol surface is unchanged 05:00 The VIX crush is just skew slide 06:00 Why he wants to see vol contract 06:50 The gamma map, red all forward 07:40 A transient rally, not a stable one #tastylive #gammaguy #brentkochuba #spotgamma #vix #volatility #zerodte #gamma #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.