We Checked the Math on Tom Lee's S&P 8000 Call

Tom Lee is calling for a 10 to 20 percent drop in the S&P between August and October, then a rally to 8,000 by year end. On Options Math Check, tastylive puts that roadmap under the microscope using live SPX option probabilities. The verdict on 8,000 is that it sits within the expected move and reads as roughly a coin flip to be touched, so it is very much in play. The upside targets are a different story. The options market prices only about a two percent chance of 8,800 by year end, beyond two standard deviations, so that call needs an almost nonstop rally. The bigger point is that this looks like a sector rotation, not an exit, with equal weight names at highs while the Nasdaq gets hit. None of this is a trade recommendation. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Tom Lees S&P roadmap 00:26 The math the rally requires 00:38 What the options imply 00:50 The math check question 01:08 Why the Nasdaq call is right 01:44 Comparing RSP SPY and the Qs 02:22 A clear sector rotation 03:56 Checking 8000 on SPX 04:57 Why 8800 is off the table 06:07 The put skew still leans down 07:02 What needs to change for the bulls #tastylive #optionstrading #tomlee #sp500 #spx #mathcheck #sectorrotation #stockmarket #nasdaq #tastytrade tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.