Tom Lee Says the Market Is a Coiled Spring, the Options Say Maybe

Tom Lee, one of Wall Street's most unrelenting bulls, calls this market a coiled spring and sees the S&P at 8,200 to 8,400 by year-end. Mike Butler checks it against the options. From the recent high, Lee's 8,200 is about 6% higher, and with year-end implied vol near 20%, the options put only about a one-in-five chance of the S&P finishing above 8,200 by December 31st. The catch: coiled springs and falling knives look identical until they move, and nobody's paying up for the release. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Coiled spring or a slinky on the stairs 00:08 Who is Tom Lee 00:35 His 8,200 to 8,400 year-end call 00:46 The bull case, everyone's already out 00:56 Meta beats and still falls 01:46 The VIX at 19, a one-day move 02:22 The math on Lee's target 02:34 A one-in-five chance by year-end 03:03 Spring or falling knife 03:40 What next week really decides #tastylive #mathcheck #tomlee #coiledspring #sp500 #optionsmath #expectedmove #vix #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.