This Kind Of Rally Has Happened Eleven Times Since 2004

The market has run hard off the March low, and this study puts it in historical context. The research looks at every case since 2004 where the market gained at least twenty percent in under six months without a drawdown deeper than six percent, and finds eleven. From there it turns to reversals, measuring how often a two standard deviation move gets filled the next day compared with over five and forty five days. The pattern is the case for giving contrarian positions time rather than expecting a snapback. Study results are historical, not predictive. Education, not a recommendation. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 What the piece is about 01:08 The criteria for the study 01:42 Eleven times since 2004 03:30 How this rally compares 04:47 Odds of a pullback ahead 05:24 How they measure extreme moves 06:02 Gap fills within a day 07:06 What happens over longer horizons 08:02 Why longer term positioning wins 09:21 The takeaways from the study 10:25 Applying it to single names 11:47 What the monthly chart shows #tastylive #marketmeasures #optionstrading #stockmarket #meanreversion #alltimehighs #trading #spx #marketresearch #optionseducation tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.