The Last 3 Midterms Each Fell 10% Within a Day of Expiration. Cem Karsan on Why

Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility (@jam_croissant) points out that all three of the last midterm years, 2014, 2018 and 2022, saw a decline of 10 percent or more beginning within a day of August or September expiration. He is careful to say three is a small sample. His argument for why now is flows rather than headlines. Index volatility is compressed, correlation between S&P names has broken down, and he says that combination has reliably preceded a volatility expansion. This week brings VIX expiration and monthly opex. Education, not a recommendation. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 How quiet it actually is 01:49 The volatility risk premium is gone 03:18 Where the premium still lives 06:42 Flows, macro and the administration 10:57 Narrative follows price 12:00 The catalyst is usually already here 16:03 Knowledge is volatility dampening 17:14 Voting machine, weighing machine 20:46 What past elections actually did 23:34 All three midterms broke at expiration 26:58 Why it keeps arriving earlier #tastylive #cemkarsan #volatility #vix #opex #optionstrading #tastytrade #marketstructure #stockmarket #tastycrumbs tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.