The Day the Market Hits a Record Is the Worst Day to Do This Trade

On the day the market breaks to a new all-time high, premium is wildly overstated, the expected move runs about 2.8x the realized move, so selling an iron condor should be easy money. It isn't. This research shows day zero is the worst-performing day of the whole study. The reason is the trap: new highs create a cascade of optimism, the market closes green 87% of the time, and the upside blows through your short call strike more than half the time. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Recapping the all-time-high behavior 00:28 The 0DTE iron condor setup 01:10 Keeping the metrics consistent 02:26 Premium overstated 2.8x at new highs 03:49 The counterintuitive result 03:52 Day zero is the worst performer 05:00 Why rich premium still loses 06:11 The call side breaks over half the time 07:10 Every day isn't a coin flip 08:00 A month to revert to baseline 08:40 The grand takeaway, just go outside #tastylive #tastyresearch #ironcondor #zerodte #alltimehighs #premiumselling #callskew #spx #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.