The 50-Year Market Regime That Just Ended

Ilya Spivak drops a big-picture warning: you can't fully trust what you know about volatility anymore. For 40 to 50 years markets ran on structurally falling rates and a built-in risk-on bid, and almost all our vol data comes from that era, which he says is now over. If the backdrop changed, the historical playbook for vol may not hold. They tie it to the tape: the VIX spiked after OPEX, and CoreWeave, with bonds implying a 63% default chance, could be the first cockroach. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Let's look at the VIX 00:25 Nothing, nothing, then a spike 00:50 The regime that lasted 50 years 01:40 Structurally low rates are history 02:30 Can you trust your vol assumptions 03:10 The weirdness in vol lately 03:40 CoreWeave takes another hit 04:20 Bonds imply a 63% default chance 04:50 The first cockroach, there's never one 06:00 When flush means down, not a dip #tastylive #backtothefutures #vix #volatility #interestrates #regimechange #coreweave #aibubble #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.