Is the US Economy About to Crack? Watch This, Says Ilya Spivak

Crude oil is surging, yet bond yields and the US dollar keep falling while gold refuses to decline. Are the markets bracing for a slowdown? tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak looks at price signals in stocks, bonds, crude oil, gold, and the US dollar to decipher what the markets may do next. 00:00 Is a US Economic Slowdown Threatening Stocks? 00:50 S&P 500 Rebound Fades as a Market Top Takes Shape 02:10 Nasdaq Tests Resistance After Breaking Support 03:40 Bond Yields Fall Despite Rising Oil Prices 05:55 Gold Defies Hot CPI and PPI Inflation Data 06:35 Dollar Weakens Despite European Debt Stress 09:30 Are Markets Starting to Price In a Growth Scare? 10:15 US PMI Data and Tech Earnings Become Key Catalysts 11:00 Fed Beige Book Warns of Broadening Consumer Weakness 12:10 Inflation Outpaces Wages as Consumer Confidence Plunges 13:10 GDP Growth Slows as AI Spending Masks Economic Weakness 14:50 Bond Market Inflation Expectations Diverge From Oil 15:25 Fed and Markets Still Disagree on 2027 Rate Hikes 16:15 Could Weak PMIs and Earnings Force a Fed Repricing? 17:20 Positioning: Gold, FX and Emerging Markets 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom Preston's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow #options #trading #investing #finance #stocks #stockmarket #marketanalysis #tradereducation #financialeducation #tastylive tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.