Dealers Are Short Momentum Calls. Cem Karsan Says the Next Two Weeks Decide the Fall.

Cem Karsan joins Jermal Chandler with a read on the one corner of the market he thinks people are underweighting: the momentum factor. Momentum ran hard from April through June on a call squeeze — record call positioning, record call skew, prices exploding higher. Then it rested, call decay set in, and dealers began selling back into it. That's the downtrend momentum has been stuck in all summer, and it's now trying to break out. Karsan's view: if the gamma in that space doesn't squeeze now, the next two weeks into August OpEx look like the rest of the summer. He also connects it to the market-up-vol-up setup from his last appearance, and to a midterm election in November where event vol is still cheap and demand is building. Plus a breakdown of a large Nasdaq straddle sale on the tape — why the two weeks into expiration are the structural window for selling volatility, why the other two weeks are more dangerous and less profitable, and the questions to ask before reading any single trade as a signal. And an on-air disagreement over whether the iShares momentum ETF actually measures momentum. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom Preston's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow #options #trading #investing #finance #stocks #stockmarket #marketanalysis #tradereducation #financialeducation #tastylive tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.