Coinbase CEO Says 400K Bitcoin. What Do the Options Say

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently called 400,000 dollar Bitcoin by 2030 a reasonable target, with Bitcoin trading near 80,000 today. In this Math Check, Mike Butler runs the numbers. He shows why Bitcoin's headline average return is misleading, since the compounded return you would actually earn is far lower, and why a single brutal down year quietly wrecks the simple average. Then he turns to the Bitcoin ETF options market, one of the cleanest ways to read the crowd's real odds, to see what long dated expirations imply about a move that big. The short version: it is a long shot the market prices as small, but not zero. Views are the speakers' own. Education, not a recommendation. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Coinbase CEO's 400K Bitcoin call 00:27 Why the average return misleads 01:03 Bitcoin has never had two red years 01:55 The setup and a Fed hike ahead 02:16 Why the ETF options are cleanest 02:39 Converting 400K into an ETF price 03:39 Reading the longest dated options 05:11 The real probability of a touch 06:00 What the open interest tells us #tastylive #bitcoin #btc #brianarmstrong #coinbase #ibit #bitcoinoptions #mikebutler #mathcheck #optionstrading tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.