Payrolls Went Negative and the Fed Just Lost Its Map

Nonfarm payrolls came in negative when a solid gain was expected, sending the two-year Treasury yield lower and steepening the curve. Shriya Samarth, StoneX Head of Rates, EMEA, breaks down what the payrolls shock means for the 2026 rate path and a Federal Reserve stepping back from forward guidance. The bigger problem is trust in the data, with post-pandemic payroll revisions now large and frequent enough to drain the signal from any single print. New Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has signaled less appetite for forward guidance, leaving the market to reprice rate expectations on its own ahead of a pivotal September FOMC meeting. Discover Actionable Insights with StoneX Market Intelligence: https://shop.stonex.com/products/stonex-essential-bundle?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955323625572&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_shriya_samarth&utm_content=share 0:00 Payrolls and the Fed Mandate 0:19 Negative Print Jolts the Curve 0:45 Revisions Are Now the Story 1:40 Fed Drops Its Forward Guidance 2:07 Trading Blind Into September Like and subscribe for more financial market insights. #StoneX #ShriyaSamarth #FederalReserve #NFP