Was It a Bad Trade, or Just Bad Luck?

Want to be on the show? Send us a question, a voice note or a quick video to [email protected] How do you know whether a losing trade came from a bad decision, or simply a good process with a bad outcome? In Episode 7 of Markets and Mindsets, Paul and Emma are joined by Tony, a newer trader focused mainly on gold and EUR/USD, to explore one of the easiest habits for traders to fall into: overtrading. The conversation examines “resulting” - judging the quality of a decision purely by its outcome - and why one winning or losing trade is rarely enough to tell you whether your process is working. The team share practical ways to slow down decision-making, build a repeatable routine and judge trades over a meaningful sample rather than reacting to one result. They also discuss position sizing, acceptance, backtesting and why both full-time and part-time traders benefit from having a clear process before pressing the buy button. In this episode: - Why overtrading can affect traders at every stage of their journey - What “resulting” means and why outcomes can distort your judgement - The difference between a good process with a bad outcome and a bad process with a good outcome - Why one trade is not enough evidence to judge a strategy - How writing down your reasons for entering a trade improves discipline - Why a repeatable process is essential for consistent results - How routines can help both full-time and part-time traders slow down emotional decisions - Why position sizing should reflect your tolerance for losses and uncertainty - How smaller trades can help rebuild confidence while testing a strategy - Why acceptance often comes with time, perspective and distance from the trade Chapters: 00:00 – Introduction: The Overtrading Trap 01:15 – Meet Tony: Trading Gold and EUR/USD 01:57 – When a Bad Outcome Doesn’t Mean a Bad Trade 02:21 – Understanding “Resulting” 04:10 – Why Your Trading Process Should Be Written Down 05:21 – Following the Plan and Accepting the Outcome 07:20 – Building Confidence Through a Repeatable Process 09:42 – Trading Plans, Routines and Atomic Habits 10:40 – Judge the Process Over a Series of Trades 13:05 – Position Sizing and Emotional Tolerance Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to Markets and Mindsets for more conversations exploring the psychology behind better investing. If you enjoyed this episode, leave a rating or share it with someone looking to become a more thoughtful investor. Capital at risk. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you originally invested. This podcast is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.