Oil Prices Driving Interest Rates Higher; When Will Stocks React?

🎟️ Join The Art of Investing LIVE at Lord’s Cricket Ground! Join Rich, Mark and Chris in the Long Room at Lord’s Cricket Ground on 13th October from 6:30pm for a special live edition of The Art of Investing. The event is completely free – sign up here: https://www.ig.com/uk/the-art-of-investing-live 📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides View the portfolio breakdown: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IJ4H6InCh7tdOFr6esJWed_zLwOsP3Hj/view?usp=drive_link 📧 Get in touch: [email protected] 📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok 🎧 Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-art-of-investing/id1825201965 🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bmvfbDz2kniwxCL66sVjH This week on The Art of Investing, the team look ahead to a crucial week for global interest rates, with major central banks preparing to make their next moves as investors grapple with rising oil prices and an intensifying competition for capital. Chris explains why he believes interest rates need to rise regardless of the latest inflation data, while Mark explores the bullish alternative: could AI-driven productivity and investment deliver economic growth strong enough to offset higher borrowing costs? The team also examine Scott Bessent’s attempts to influence US bond markets, the strengthening Japanese yen and what record copper prices are telling us about demand, AI infrastructure and the global economy. Plus, 25 years on from 9/11, Rich, Mark and Chris reflect on their experiences working in financial markets that day and the extraordinary market recovery that followed. This Week’s Highlights: 🛢️ Oil Breaks Through $100 Oil moves above $102 a barrel as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz puts energy markets and inflation back in focus. 🥉 Copper Hits Another Record High Copper reaches a new all-time high as supply tightens and demand from AI data centres continues to grow. 💴 The Yen Trade Pays Off The Japanese yen strengthens around 4%, helping the portfolio’s unhedged Nikkei 225 position and highlighting the impact currencies can have on overseas investments. 🏦 Should Central Banks Raise Rates? With major central bank decisions approaching, Chris argues policymakers should act now to demonstrate their commitment to controlling inflation. 🤖 Could AI Deliver Extraordinary Growth? The team debate whether AI-driven productivity could generate enough economic growth to offset higher borrowing costs. 📈 When Do Higher Yields Become a Problem? Chris asks where the tipping point lies at which attractive bond yields begin pulling capital away from equities. Portfolio Snapshot - Week 56: 📊 Weekly portfolio performance: +0.2% 📈 Total return since inception: +24.8% 📅 2026 year-to-date return: +12.2% Top Performers: 📈 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: +2.8% 📈 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +2.8% 📈 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETC: +1.0% Underperformers: 📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: -2.9% 📉 Vanguard FTSE 250: -1.1% 📉 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: -0.9% 📉 Invesco STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF GBP: -0.8% Portfolio Changes: The team are selling their 5% holding in XLI SPDR US Industrials ETF and moving the proceeds into cash, taking the portfolio’s cash allocation from 10% to 15%. After several weeks of discussing becoming more defensive, the additional cash gives the team greater flexibility should opportunities emerge. Big Questions This Week: - How much further could oil prices rise? - Why has the Japanese yen strengthened so sharply? - Should central banks raise rates even if inflation begins to soften? - Can AI growth offset higher borrowing costs? - When do higher bond yields begin pulling capital away from equities? - Is now the right time to become more defensive? What You’ll Learn: ✔️ Why oil above $100 could create renewed inflationary pressure ✔️ How currencies can transform returns from overseas investments ✔️ Why central banks face difficult decisions on interest rates ✔️ How AI investment is creating competition for capital ✔️ Why stronger growth doesn’t automatically mean higher equity valuations ✔️ Why the team are increasing their cash position Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes. Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.