Moonpig Initiation; Playing its cards right

Equity Development1 hour ago1:04

Moonpig is the category leader in online physical greeting cards, with c.70% UK online market share, 12.3m active customers and 90% of revenues from existing customers, supporting a sector leading 20.5% Adj. PBT margin and c.70% ROCE. We forecast a 12.5% EPS CAGR between FY26 and FY29E, driven by a 6% revenue CAGR and share buybacks, as growth in active customers, purchase frequency and average order value is supported by data led personalisation and gifting. c.17% of revenues convert into free cash flow, and with leverage at c.1.0x net debt to EBITDA we estimate c.£70m a year of surplus cash can be returned via a progressive dividend and share buybacks, reflecting an 8% FCF yield. Shares trade on 13.5x cal 2027 PER, a c.10% discount to the 15x historic average (2022 to 2025). We initiate with a Fair Value of 330p per share, equating to c.16x PER, c.10x EV/EBITDA and a c.7% FCF yield (all cal 2027).

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Moonpig Initiation; Playing its cards right | PiQ Markets