Why the Canadian Dollar Rallied 3.5% Then Gave It Back

Jim Iuorio of JI Financial Strategies breaks down why the Canadian dollar rallied almost 3.5% against the U.S. dollar between July 6 and Aug. 21, and why it gave much of that back once a new round of 50% tariffs took effect on Aug. 22. The first half of the move was crude oil. Canada is a significant producer and exporter of crude to the U.S., and the Canadian dollar tracks energy closely enough that a sustained bid in WTI Crude Oil futures tends to show up in Canadian Dollar futures. The euro gained 2.8% over the same stretch, so the move stood out even in a broadly weaker dollar. The second half was trade policy. Tariffs took effect on Aug. 22, Canada answered with reciprocal measures, and the U.S. case was that the larger economy can absorb the cost more easily. The currency slipped 1.4% and stabilized, which leaves USD/CAD sitting mid-range in a band going back to April 2025. That is not the profile of a market pricing a major disruption. Learn more about trading futures and options at CME Group: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/microsuite/fx.html #Canada #dollar #fx #futures