Key facts
- WTO now projects global merchandise trade volume growth of 3.9% in 2026.
- Trade in AI-related goods, including semiconductors, jumped 67% year-on-year.
- Services trade growth forecast for 2026 was cut to 3.3% from 4.8%.
- Global GDP is forecast to grow 2.6% in 2026, with Asia leading at 4.3%.
- Middle East GDP is expected to contract by 4% in 2026.
- US imports from China fell 29% in 2025, reducing China's share of US imports.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its outlook for global trade, projecting stronger growth in merchandise trade for 2026, largely driven by demand for artificial intelligence-related products. This surge in AI goods, including semiconductors and components for AI data centers, has helped to offset disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East.
The WTO now forecasts global merchandise trade volume growth to reach 3.9% in 2026, a significant increase from its March baseline forecast of 1.9%. Trade in AI-enabling goods saw a substantial jump of 67% from the previous year. In value terms, these goods accounted for nearly half of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026.
However, the trade body has lowered its forecast for services trade growth to 3.3% in 2026, down from 4.8%, citing increased aviation fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Growth forecasts for transport and travel services were also reduced. Global GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, with Asia anticipated to lead with 4.3% growth, while the Middle East faces a projected output drop of 4%.
The report also highlighted risks to the forecast, including diminishing household purchasing power due to higher fuel and fertilizer costs, and potential slowdowns in AI investment. While signs of geopolitical trade bloc fragmentation have eased, the decoupling between the US and China has accelerated, with US imports from China falling 29% in 2025.